Market brief — October 25, 2026

Friday, European and US equities closed lower: the CAC 40 fell 0.36% to 7,782.82, the DAX declined 0.75% to 25,181.65, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.31% to 6,068.22, the S&P 500 dropped 0.52% to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq eased 0.21% to 25,955.34. These were Friday’s closing levels, not Sunday prices. The dominant regime remains a geopolitical inflation shock: Brent finished the week near $117 and WTI above $103, while reported Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and renewed Strait of Hormuz threats kept the risk premium elevated.^[1][3][4] The move looks more like genuine macro repricing and selective de-risking than ordinary profit-taking, with energy leadership offsetting pressure on long-duration equities.

Cross-asset signals remain mixed but increasingly defensive. Oil’s weekly surge is reviving inflation expectations and complicating the Federal Reserve’s easing path, even as bond-market demand reportedly pulled the 10-year Treasury yield back below 5% late in the week.^[3] That divergence—higher energy risk alongside lower yields—suggests investors are balancing an inflation shock against growth and equity risks rather than simply positioning for uniformly tighter financial conditions. The dollar’s resilience, particularly against the yen near the 160 area, reinforces the defensive tone and raises intervention risk for Japan.^[7] The key question for the next few sessions is whether oil remains above $100; if it does, discretionary flows are likely to favor energy, defensives and cash over high-duration technology.

The Cash Scanner strongly confirms that rotation. Energy accounts for four of the ten leading signals: Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), score 42, gap +2.4%, shows a 20-day breakout with rising volume and KST; Exxon Mobil (XOM), score 38, gap +2.8%, combines a breakout with rising ADX and KST; and TotalEnergies (TTE.PA), score 38, gap +4.3%, has the same breakout, volume and momentum profile. Range Resources (RRC), score 36, gap +3.8%, adds another US energy breakout. Real estate is the secondary pocket: Crown Castle (CCI), score 40, gap +9.1%, and American Tower (AMT), score 44, gap +4.1%, both show breakouts, although their strength would be vulnerable if yields reaccelerate. The concentration is predominantly US energy and infrastructure rather than broad risk appetite, indicating commodity hedging and targeted momentum, not a generalized equity recovery.

The dominant narrative for the next one to five sessions is whether the Gulf conflict generates a further supply interruption. Consensus already prices a substantial disruption premium, but confirmed damage to pipelines, refineries or shipping would be underappreciated relative to current equity positioning and could force another rates and inflation repricing. Conversely, rapid de-escalation or evidence that attacks have not impaired physical flows would create a sharp oil reversal and favor technology short covering. The contrarian scenario is therefore a risk-on squeeze in the Nasdaq if crude retreats while the Federal Reserve sounds less restrictive than feared.

The highest-impact scheduled catalysts are Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, followed Thursday by US third-quarter GDP and September personal-consumption inflation data; these will determine whether the oil shock is treated as temporary or as a reason to delay easing.^[2][5] The week also brings major results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, capable of deciding whether AI and energy leadership persists.^[2] In Europe, the ECB and corporate earnings remain important secondary tests of cyclical resilience.^[9]

Three risks could break current positioning: independently confirmed damage to Gulf infrastructure; a renewed Treasury sell-off that pushes the 10-year yield back toward 5%; and weaker-than-expected megacap technology guidance alongside elevated oil. Any combination would widen the equity risk premium and undermine real-estate momentum.

Actionably, sustained Brent above $117 with renewed shipping disruption would favor momentum in Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies and Plains GP Holdings, while a close back below $110 would invalidate the immediate energy breakout signal. A 10-year yield recovery toward 5% should be treated as confirmation to reduce exposure to American Tower and Crown Castle; a failure to regain that level would support their relative trade. Finally, a Federal Reserve statement that preserves easing expectations, combined with softer core inflation, would be the trigger for Nasdaq short covering; without that rates confirmation, Friday’s defensive leadership is more likely to extend.

Bonne journée aux p&l makers.