Market brief — October 11, 2026

Friday’s session closed with the CAC 40 at 7,803.33, up 0.95%; the DAX at 25,087.27, up 1.13%; the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,173.37, up 0.76%; the S&P 500 at 7,811.54, up 0.59%; and the Nasdaq at 27,366.17, up 0.64%. These are Friday’s closes, not Sunday prices. The rebound was primarily a geopolitical relief move and positioning unwind: reports of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz briefly pushed Brent down about 9% to $90.38, helping equities rally, but the weekend narrative has deteriorated as reports indicated Iran could close the channel again.^[1][4] The broader regime remains stagflationary: the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.24% after reaching 5.36% during the week, while the 30-year yield touched 5.73%, keeping valuation pressure elevated.^[1][7]

The key cross-asset question for Monday is whether Friday’s equity strength survives a renewed energy shock. The Strait of Hormuz affects roughly 20% of global oil supply, and accessible inventories have been drawn down substantially since the conflict began, leaving prices unusually sensitive to disruption headlines.^[8] Brent reportedly settled near $104.72 on Friday in other market coverage, illustrating the market’s extreme intraday range and source-to-source timing differences.^[3] Equities therefore rose despite historically high long-end yields, a divergence consistent with short covering and discretionary relief buying rather than a durable macro repricing. If oil remains above $100, inflation expectations and term premia can extend higher, limiting the upside in long-duration technology even if systematic buying persists.

The Cash Scanner reinforces a US momentum-led relief trade, not a broad regional rotation. Palantir leads with a score of 40, a +5.2% gap and a 20-day breakout supported by rising volume, Vortex and ADX 33. Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Nutanix each score 34, with +3.5% and +2.1% gaps respectively; both show 20-day breakouts, while Nutanix also has volume confirmation and ADX 36. Microsoft scores 34, up 2.4% on the scan, with Vortex, KST and ADX 40 signaling persistent trend strength. Novavax is the outlier: a +15.8% gap, score 34 and ADX 52 indicate aggressive idiosyncratic biotechnology momentum. Five of the ten signals are technology names, all are US-listed, and the concentration argues for crowded momentum exposure rather than confirmed market breadth.

Over the next one to five sessions, markets are most likely to trade the interaction between oil and US inflation. Consensus already expects September US CPI to accelerate to 3.6% year on year from 3.4%, with core CPI at 2.5% from 2.4%.^[7] What remains underpriced is the possibility that renewed energy disruption lifts both headline inflation and inflation expectations enough to delay monetary easing. The contrarian scenario is a rapid diplomatic reopening of Hormuz: oil would retrace, Treasury yields could fall, and the Nasdaq and high-beta scanner names could outperform sharply. Conversely, a sustained oil shock would favor energy and defensives over long-duration growth.

The highest-impact catalysts are Wednesday’s US CPI and the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which could reset rate expectations; Thursday’s US producer prices, retail sales and jobless claims, which will test whether inflation is demand-led; and this week’s large-bank earnings beginning Tuesday, which will reveal whether high yields are supporting net interest income or damaging credit quality.^[1][6][7] Chinese inflation and trade data on Wednesday will determine whether weakness in Asian demand reinforces the commodity shock or whether China provides a growth offset.^[6]

Risks to monitor are a renewed Hormuz closure, further sanctions or attacks affecting tanker flows, and a disorderly Treasury market if oil-driven inflation pushes the 10-year yield back toward 5.36%. A hot CPI combined with weak retail sales would be particularly damaging: it would produce a stagflation signal without providing the Fed room to ease. IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok will also keep the conflict, depleted inventories and high sovereign debt at the center of official messaging.^[8]

A tactical continuation trade requires Brent to stabilize below its recent extreme and the 10-year yield to remain below 5.36%; under that setup, Palantir, Nutanix and Microsoft can extend momentum, while a yield breakout would invalidate the signal. A renewed oil move above $100 alongside higher yields would favor reducing exposure to Nasdaq duration and shifting toward energy and defensive sectors. Finally, watch whether the S&P 500 can hold Friday’s 7,811.54 close with volatility contained: failure alongside weaker breadth would suggest that the scanner’s concentrated technology leadership is a short-covering bounce, not a durable risk-on regime.

Bonne journée aux p&l makers.