Market brief — August 4, 2026

Yesterday’s close left equities constructive but still selective: the CAC 40 ended at 8,509.64 (+0.28%), the S&P 500 at 7,489.72 (+0.7%), the Nasdaq at 25,373.85 (+1.0%), the DAX at 25,629.24 (+0.07%), and the Euro Stoxx 50 at 6,358.01 (+0.21%). The tape still looks like a higher-duration, higher-multiple regime rather than a broad macro re-rating, with risk appetite supported more by stabilizing rates and earnings resilience than by any clean cyclical acceleration. Overnight, the most important incremental driver was the AI/semiconductor earnings complex: Palantir surged after raising its full-year outlook, while Advanced Micro Devices, On Semiconductor and Snap also featured in positive post-print reaction, reinforcing the idea that investors are rewarding forward guidance and AI-linked growth more than index-level macro breadth.^[5][6][8]

That backdrop matters because it keeps the market split between growth leadership and everything else. U.S. tech strength remains the cleanest signal that duration-sensitive equities can still attract flows when rate volatility is contained, while Europe’s near-flat DAX and only modestly higher Euro Stoxx 50 suggest the continent is not yet joining a full risk-on impulse. The broader cross-asset read is still one of selective risk-taking rather than indiscriminate de-risking: equities can rise even without a decisive bond selloff, but the move is unlikely to broaden unless yields and the dollar stay benign. For now, the market appears to be driven more by discretionary earnings momentum and short covering in favored growth names than by a full systematic risk-on regime.

The Cash Scanner is consistent with that selective tone, but it also shows a rotation beyond mega-cap tech. JD.com (JD) scored 44 with a +2.2% gap and a 20-day breakout in U.S.-listed Chinese retail/consumer exposure, while Crédit Agricole (ACA.PA) scored 42 with a +2.3% gap, also on a 20-day breakout and ADX strength, signaling that European financials are participating. RTX (RTX) scored 37 with volume expansion and ADX 33 in U.S. aerospace and defense, which fits the persistent defense bid, and BP (BP) scored 36 with a +2.3% gap and a 20-day breakout in energy, confirming that commodity-linked cash flow still has sponsorship. The scan is not purely tech-led; it is a mix of defense, banks, energy and select consumer names, which argues for an early rotation rather than a narrow momentum chase.

Over the next 1–5 sessions, the dominant narrative is whether this earnings-driven equity bid can survive a test from rates and macro data. Consensus still expects a soft-landing backdrop with contained inflation and enough growth to justify elevated multiples, but much of that is already priced into the leaders. What is less certain is whether the market is underestimating how much of the index advance depends on a handful of AI winners and whether stronger-than-expected activity could push yields higher and cap further multiple expansion. A credible contrarian scenario is that the market broadens into financials, defense and energy if rate volatility stays calm and the AI trade pauses rather than breaks.

The most important upcoming catalysts are the next wave of heavyweight U.S. earnings, which can either validate the leadership trade or expose its concentration; any fresh commentary on rates and balance-sheet runoff from major central bankers or Fed speakers, which could reprice duration-sensitive sectors; and U.S. labor and activity data later this week, which will decide whether the current equity strength is a growth-positive signal or simply another leg of rate-hope positioning. In Europe, any follow-through in bank and energy earnings will matter mainly insofar as it confirms that the rotation is durable outside the U.S. mega-cap complex.

The main risks are a renewed back-up in Treasury yields that would compress long-duration multiples, an earnings disappointment from an AI bellwether that triggers de-risking in crowded growth, and any commodity shock that revives inflation anxiety and hurts the current mix of tech and cyclicals. A softer-than-expected macro print would likely extend the rally if it lowers yields without breaking growth, but a hotter print could quickly narrow leadership again.

If the Nasdaq holds its recent outperformance while the 10-year yield stays contained, the current leadership in Palantir-style AI momentum, RTX, and the more defensive cash-generating names on the scanner should remain intact; a decisive move higher in yields would be the first warning that the growth premium is vulnerable. If Crédit Agricole and BP keep confirming with volume while JD.com sustains its breakout, that would argue for rotation broadening rather than a one-factor tech squeeze. If, however, the post-earnings AI surge fades and the scanner reverts to low-quality gaps without follow-through, the next session likely shifts back to mean reversion and index-level consolidation rather than trend extension.

Bonne journée aux p&l makers.