Market brief — June 30, 2026

US markets snapped a five-day losing streak as technology stocks regained strength, with the Nasdaq surging 2.07% to close at 25,820.14 and the S&P 500 gaining 1.18% to 7,440.43^[2][4]. European indices showed mixed performance, as the CAC 40 dipped 0.21% to 8,367.33 while the DAX fell 0.18% to 24,626.89, though the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.16% to 6,231.63^[1]. This rebound reflects a decisive unwind of crowded semiconductor longs and a rotation toward cyclicals and biotech, driven by signs of easing Middle East tensions and a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran^[2][4]. The move signals fresh risk-taking rather than a systematic unwind, as investors recalibrate optimism over artificial intelligence profits following volatile moves in chip shares^[1].

Macro flows confirm a shift from AI-driven momentum toward sectors with tangible earnings, supported by stable Treasury yields and a firm dollar^[2]. The Nasdaq’s outperformance, led by SpaceX and Tesla surging 7% and 8% respectively, underscores a discretionary rotation into high-growth names outside the traditional chip complex^[2]. Credit spreads widened slightly as positioning de-risks, while oil prices edged higher amid renewed geopolitical concerns over the Strait of Hormuz^[2][4]. This divergence—equities up while yields remain steady—implies that the market is pricing in a resilient economic expansion despite policy volatility, with Deutsche Bank noting that geopolitical tail risks remain difficult to price even after peace talks^[4].

Today’s Cash Scanner TOP 10 highlights a sector concentration in US financials and biotech, with T Rowe Price Grp Rg (TROW) scoring 45 and breaking out over 20 days with a bullish MACD and rising volume^[1]. Annaly Cap REIT Rg (NLY) and Ally Financial Rg (ALLY) also posted scores of 44 and 42, respectively, both showing 20-day breakouts and rising vortex indicators^[1]. Biotech leaders like CYTOKINETICS INC CYTK (CYTK) and REVOLUTION MEDICINES INC (RVMD) surged 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively, with strong ADX readings confirming idiosyncratic momentum^[1]. This mix aligns with broader flows, suggesting early regime shifts toward non-tech growth and financial stability.

The coming week’s agenda centers on US Nonfarm Payrolls and the U-6 Unemployment Rate on June 30, which could sway rates expectations and volatility^[9]. Investors will also monitor the Federal Reserve’s stance amid Supreme Court rulings on Fed governor Lisa Cook, which may impact bond market stability^[2]. Any surprise in jobs data could trigger a sharp re-pricing of rate path expectations, particularly if inflation expectations remain sticky.

Key risks include a sudden escalation in Middle East tensions disrupting energy supplies, a surprise in US jobs data that contradicts the resilient expansion narrative, or a liquidity event in credit markets as spreads widen^[2][4]. Geopolitical tail risks remain elevated, with Deutsche Bank warning that policy volatility may persist even after peace talks^[4].

Actionable lines: Consider long positions in TROW above 114.38 with a stop at 110, targeting a breakout confirmation via rising volume; watch CYTK for a continuation above 87.26 if ADX strength persists; and monitor the S&P 500 for a test of 7,500 if jobs data supports the resilient expansion thesis.

Bonne journée aux p&l makers.